USD/CAD Daily Forecast 28.01

28 Jan 2008

USD/CAD - 1.0100 -

Resistance: 1.0109 ... 1.0133 ... 1.0158 ... 1.0196

Support: 1.0070 ... 1.0045 ... 1.0011 ... 0.9974

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: While 1.0133-53 caps the larger picture remains bearish for 0.9844-71

Daily Bullish: Slow progress was seen on Friday with price testing the lower resistance area at 1.0104 with minor breach. While 1.0065-70 continues to support we should see direct gains to the next major resistance at 1.0153-64 which should cap for further losses. Thus any stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.0170 and if seen would cause a retracement back to 1.0215 and 1.0237-54.

MT Bullish: The downside looks more likely now. Thus only a break back above 1.0170 would encourage back higher to 1.0237-54, 1.0290 and then 1.0376 high. (25th January)

Daily Bearish: The upside has developed without being convincing and thus I remain bearish. We should find a good selling opportunity between 1.0133-64 from where I’ll be looking for losses to develop back below 1.0065-70 and then follow-through to the 1.0011 low. This may well cause a minor pullback but the larger picture suggests further losses through 0.9974 and 0.9936 to 0.9871 which should cause a pullback.

MT Bearish: The downside has developed as expected and this should continue to the 0.9936 and probably 0.9871 levels before the next pullback. The eventual target will be back at 0.9755 and possibly a touch lower. (25th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

23rd January

While it is frustrating that the 23.6% expansion at 1.0363 broke slightly with the bearish divergences I feel we should be seeing losses now. We shouldn’t see much above (if at all) the prior support line around 1.0307 in what I feel is Wave ii of Wave efc.

The only possible doubt is that to make this a 5-wave decline to 0.9755 again we really need a 223.6%-261.8% projection in Wave iii which rest at 0.9936 and 0.9871 respectively.

25th January

Progress being made and max pullback should be at 1.0153-64 being either a Wave –iv- or Wave –b- (and I suspect the latter) before moving to the target areas mentioned above.

I. Copsey